Em.'s In & Outs

Facing the prospect of a multipolar world, the US is now facing more than ever the urge to consolidate alliances to fulfill its self-proclaimed mandate of ensuring global stability. While some analysts argue that India, like Japan, will become an instrument of American foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), others think India will rather drag down the US influence. I believe that India is likely to emerge as a balancing power for both the US and China, while keeping relatively independent from both powers while seeking not to antagonize them in the pursuit of its national interests. In this paper, I will reflect India's current position and motivations in the Asia Pacific region to see how they differ from that of other key players, focusing on such countries as the United States and China as well as members of key multilateral bodies.

To start with, it is only recently did the international community start looking at India as a potential balancing factor for the US or China in the APR. This is not unrelated to its tremendous economic performance reflected by GDP growth rates approaching 10% per year in the past 10 years. In fact, the well-discussed BRIC Report estimates that Indian GDP will surpass that of Japan by 2040 (Jain, 2006), a miracle which can be explained by referring to English speaking India's specialisation in the information-technology business, which makes it a primary destination for outsourcing. (Friedman, 2006). However, just like China always claims to still be a developing country, one can not ignore the harsh reality for most Indians; the absolute number of people living below the poverty line in populous India is increasing and that its PPP-GDP only accounts for half that of China (Kueh, 2006). In this context, it is safe to assert that India still has a long way to go before it can catch up to the US or China, let alone supplant them.

Similarly, India faces significant internal problems that might jeopardize its efforts to get involved in world affairs. The most salient is the conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir. Although most analysts doubt this will prevent India from becoming a major power in the region and although peace negotiations are in progress since 2004 (Ganguly, 2006), it remains that, especially after last week's bombings in Mumbai, these tensions could well degenerate into a nuclear war, which could certainly weaken India and slow its economic growth. The global political situation resulting would depend on whether the United States sides with its long-term ally, Pakistan, or with one it increasingly considers as a strategic partner, India. In fact, being the world largest's democracy, being located between China and the Middle East and being the home to the world's second largest Muslim population, India is now playing a prominent role in the ongoing War On Terror instigated by the United States. This event had the ironic effect of bringing together the world leader with a country that it marginalized since its 1998 nuclear tests. In the light of this process, one could argue that India is aligning itself with the US and will thus not push to affect change in an opposite direction in the APR.

However, one has to pay attention to the history of the US-India relations to make predictions about their future. At the onset of the Cold War, India positioned itself in the Non-Aligned Movement before siding with the USSR, after the normalization of sino-American relations in 1972. Hence, India and the US do not have a lasting record of cooperation and friendship. But nor do India and China, especially due to intimidation and border conflicts. However, there are reasons to believe that India may grow closer to China than to the US, although it will not overtly alienate or antagonize the latter, whose prevalent influence might however diminish. Recent years have seen an intensification of Sino-India two-way trade (from USD 1 billlion in late 1990s to USD 13 billion in 2004-05 (IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book, 2003-4, c.f. Jain and Mayer, N.A.), which is likely to increase even more due to the re-opening of the Silk Route at Nathu La pass. While examining these developments, some may think that China is simply seeking more allies in response to its isolation in the Post-Tianamen Square period and turned towards India because of its persisting dislike of Japan, but some may also think - especially after they undertook their first joint naval exercise in 2003 (Saint-Mézard and Chin, 2006) - that China and India are plotting to get the Americans out of Asia. Conscious of the implications that would have for their overall hegemony in the region and being opposed to India's project of building a pipeline to Iran, a country of the ''Axis of Evil'', the Bush administration has pledged to assist India in key dual-use technologies (such as civil nuclear power, space programmes and high technology) (Saint-Mézard and Chin, 2006). This is definitely a good deal for India, which they can not ignore in eventual political decisions relating to the US in the APR.

This does not mean that India will become a foreign policy instrument for the United States, although it is in the latter's interest to prevent Asia from being dominated by any single power that has the capacity to crowd out others (The Economist, 2006). In fact, India has its very own agenda and vision for the world and, ever since its hardly won independence from Britain, it will refuse to put itself in Japan's current security position. Neither does it want to loose its reputation of an independent power, for it would compromise its good relations with Russia, Iran and other Middle-Eastern countries. This desire not to depend on a Western power to dictate its foreign policy does not mean India will be an isolated entity in the 21st century. To the contrary, India has increased its presence internationally, concluding many bilateral deals – with such a diverse set of countries as Sri Lanka, Chile, Singapore, South Africa and Egypt (Bilateral.org : India, 2006 ). It recently improved its relations with Japan, as the US ally now sees India as a positive force balancing out China, at the same time as it seeks to gain from trade with the booming Indian economy (Chung, 2005). On the other hand, India is choosing partners that the US disapproves; for example, it is consolidating dialogue with the dictatorship in Myanmar to gain access to their gas, minerals and military bases (Batabyal, 2006). It also was amongst the first country to establish relations with the Republics of Central Asia (Chaturvedi, N.A.), a strategic move which can now be seen as a way to counterbalance China and Russia's actions through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), of which India is simply an observer. All in all, there is no overt, one-sided policy that is either pro or against the Americans.

Most importantly, India appears at the negotiation table of many regional and sub-regional groups, whose careful analysis go beyond the scope of this paper. Rivalry with China is a persistent cross-cutting theme of India's Look East Policy. At the same time as India's increased dialogue with the Association of South-East-Asian Nations (ASEAN) is welcomed by many small countries who distrust Japan and are scared of China, its ascension to the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1996 and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2005 was seen negatively by China, who considers India is too remote to become involved in these groupings. Although India failed to join the Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEC), it has pursued its own interests on the South-Asian subcontinent through strengthening ties with its neighbours, partly through the establishment of the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for MultiSectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation Forum and the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), all of which exclude China. There are good reasons to think that the current US administration welcomes India's ''expansionism'', as it switched from seeing its rival, China, as a ''strategic partner'' but rather as a ''competitive rival''. There is nevertheless no consensus within India as whether India should want to become part of the Big Three Alliance as suggested by Russia (Chaturvedi, N.A.); there is in fact a lot of controversy with regards to modernization, liberalization and adoption of Western values from many factions in India.

In conclusion, I do not believe that India will become a puppet of the United States in the near future, although I do not think that it will antagonize it either, in its efforts to catch up to China. Its rise as a regional power is likely to mitigate the US influence by consolidating ties between countries in the APR; truthful to its reputation of a lone actor, it is likely that India will adopt some policies in line with the Americans', and some others that do not, depending on its own national interests and those of the countries it has the strongest ties with. Although it is hard to predict future internal or external events that will impact on their position, it would not be surprising that the Indian foreign affairs and diplomatic trends will be subject to periodic modifications, as it was the case during the Cold War, which is argued to have never ended in the APR.

I can't really remember exactly how Chris and I met, but when the two of us (with Vris) started arguing about some graphs the econ profs put on the board during class, I knew we'd be pals! Along with Roland, the three of us would often go for dinner in wet markets or fancy restaurants, and then we had some ''very productive'' study groups at dessert places while drinking chinese coffee (which is made with hemp, hum hum!). One of the highlights of our friendship was that time we went jungle... oh ... sorry... city trekking! There was this hike on Hong Kong Island that was going through reliques of WWII which we were wanting to go to, then we realized that we had very different ways of orienting oneself (he's more rational, using maps and stuff whereas I'm more instinctual), but even together we ended up walking in some very densely vegetated areas on a cliff where we had to put our umbrella open in front of us in order to walk forwards! That's nonwidstanding that it was litterally pouring and we saw two really lovely speciment of tera multicolor spiders. But after finding out that we were able to laugh about this adventure, I think we realized we were ready (and willing to miss the farewell dinner for the occasion) for a bigger adventure: going to Yunnan.

Going to Yunnan was ''the'' thing I wanted to do in China, at least for now and until I come back for a longer time. It's been recommanded to me as a very nice place, and the remnants of the anthropologist in me was very interested in the particular demographics, for Yunnan is the province with the most ethnic minorities in China. It's very close to Laos and Vietnam, so it also has a touch of continental South-East Asia.

So we brought our backpacks to class last Wednesday and then hopped onto the KCR to cross the border to Shenzhen, as it was less expansive (but much more of a challenge) to fly from there. After having the brilliant idea to ask around (p.s. this trip was clearly unplanned), Chris and I found out last minute about the only minibus that would get us to the airport. We somehow managed to get there on time, and then had a night flight into Kunming. I felt very engaging from the beginning of the trip and didn't spare my efforts in trying to communicate around me in mandarin, given that this time Mark was not there to save my ass! The first night in Kunming was very, say, in-our-face. This trip was a big step into our respective backpacker's experiences, and, even if it was all about the regular stuff (bargaining, finding a decent place to stay, trying to take the right cabs), it was agremented by such bewildering things as seeing two men in ties playing badminton on the sidewalk at midnight! And things like that :)

The next day was fheavy in terms of communications, for it took us a while to decide what to do, and how to do it, and when and how we should move on to the next place, and so forth. We finally hopped on a bus to the Minority Villages in Kunming, where we had some quite extensive discussions about the representation of culture, tourism and the like. One thing I like about Chris is that he challenges me, and although we don't always agree and sometimes get frustrated with each other, we're always clear, direct and respectful. An example : While I had a strong feeling that ''something was wrong'' in the way ''traditions'' are put forwards in this place that reminded me of a human zoo, Chris reminded me how little factual information I knew about the topic, then I thought that the process of going through places like that is partly to raise questions, but then he said that I couldn't say anything serious unless I did some research, etc. In the end I think we both grew from these arguments, but we were also smart enough to realize that we should split up and do our things on our own sometimes in order to stay sain, which was an essential initiative indeed!

We found ourselves quite innovative in using transportation; we took a sleeper bus (the ones in which you're 95% sure of having your bags stolen once at destination) , that had three rows of very narrow beds and minuscule alleys, and ended up at the very back, on a bunk with tiny windows, sharing with two men who spent the night coughing and smoking. We got to Dali City in a ''so-so'' shape, at 3 AM, and then made it to a very nice hostel for breakfast. This was a very nice place to walk around in - it reminded me of Québec city in a way! - especially outside of the walls. The best thing we did was renting bikes and then going riding in the ride paddies and corn fields and neighbouring villages, where I met some very adorable kids! We lost our way on the way back and had to keep our balance on a 10-cm wide irrigation wall for about 200 meters, which give us the necessary rush of adrenaline to resist an otherwise inevitable heat stroke!

Then not too long after that we started being involved in a series of badlucks with both Chris and I getting money stolen and him forgetting his camera in a nice pub - an evening which would have otherwise been lovely... But good lessons learned, I get we deserved it in a sense. Watch out next time!

The next day we went to a magical place, Lijiang, a bit north, very close to Tibet. It's a place where time seems to loose it's course. The architecture is soothing, harmonious, and reflects all the influences received by this town who was a cross-roads for trade between Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guangxi. The roofs are amazing, and there's lots of opportunities for good photo. I climbed up to the top of the villages in order to see them from above, and then I met with a really nice Slovenian girl who was studying inter-EU law and together, we went up the Lijiang tower, in which I was surprised to see the exact same Chinese painting that I hung in my room in Toronto (purchased in Chinatown!)... !! But it was a pleasure for the eyes.

Overall it was a very pleasant trip, and an excellent way of making use of my second entry on my visa, and we got back about 30 min before our econ class on the Tuesday, and I'm glad we did it. I was happy to notice a difference in my spoken Chinese between now and the last trip, it's encouraging, I was even able to book the right bus tickets for us to go back to Kunming. But now I'm in a crazy rush in school with mid-terms and papers, and in four days everything is over and I'm flying to Jakarta again... Ah la la, everything is so fast... (Story of my life)

I have been pondering on this post for a bit now; trying to give out an impression of the cultural differences as I have interpreted it so far, but I find it very tricky as I do not want to make any generalizations or to 'Otherize' people... I'll give it a try, and Jenika, Steph, Yishin, Holly, Stian and others, feel free to object!

The clearest souvenir I have of the training at the Centre for Intercultural Learning is when we played a card game in which nobody was allowed to talk, but we were brought to switch from a table to another, without being able to communicate the rules of the game we were supposed to play (it ended up that everybody got different guidelines!). Applied to the African context, it was easy for me to relate to work-type differences - just think of the need to ''contextualize'' anything for 10 minutes before getting to the point... But here in Hong Kong it's a bit more subtle.

I have been working with two very nice local students on a presentation for a class and I was shocked to see how hard-working they both were. They did a lot of (book) research on our topic, to the extent where we had to cut down whole sections all together because the presentation was going to be 45 min instead of the required 15! I am not sure how that occurs or what was the best way of preventing this, but I guess due to lack of communications the presentation did end up being 45 min... With a 5 pages hand-out rather than 1 page. And with each of my partners presenting ove10 slides per sub-section, all filled with text (I had one slide per section with three bullets!). I think at first it was a little bit frustrating, but after a while I realized it was the point of an exchange; to get to know other ways of doing things. It was definitely a learning experience! And probably the first symptom of culture shock that I got!

There are other things that surprised me in the Land of the Cute! The first thing I found intriguing was the segregation in the dormitories. In addition to having all the international students in the best spots (the local students staying in the basement!!), there is very strict control of inter-gender movement in residence, which is unlike what I have gotten used to in Canada. Girls are allowed in the boys' dorm until midnight, whereas guys can only visit (after signing up) on the week-end, as long as they leave the door of the room open. It took me a little while to understand where that came from and accept it might not be an insensitive sexist treatment, but as Yishin pointed out it is certainly a means of protecting women's privacy in a society in which a girl's chastity and prudity before marriage is very valued (marriage is very valued too, more than I expected!). It could be other things too.

I also noticed that many Hongkies, but especially Singaporians, stick together in large groups of 15-20 people and are very hygiene conscious! Paper masks are for sell at the reception desk of our dorm, and one is expected to wear it if it has a vulgar cold! There is a lot of ''prevention'' advertising in public venues and transportation, advising against anything from the infantile break of intellectual property laws to the dangers associated with not holding the handrail in an escalator! Interesting! Mmmm! (That's another thing; people don't nod or make a guttural sound like in Chad to agree with someone, they just say, ''hum!'')

Even though most local students don't seem to listen to the Smiths (like all my best travel buddies, ironically), a lot of them are fully involved in the institution of karaoké! Entering one is like entering another world, where a group of 4-5 friends can gather around a set of mikes and sushi to sing Janis Joplin or the Backstreet Boys or other Cantonese, Mandarin, Japanese, Thai or Korean singers without anybody disturbing! I am told a lot of University students spend their afternoons doing that; a good stress relief I am told, in a city where pressure is high (check that out if you're not convinced!).

My last point for this post is going to be the cultural games! Horse racing is huge here, but I (somehow!) happen to be more familiar with less-gambling-type, more social-type games! I learned how to play Chinese chess, and I have yet to understand Ma Jong, the most popular game here - it was actually the main plot of a 4h movie that was played on a bus I was in! I was also lucky enough to mingle with some locals at a bar in City One Plaza, a typical residential area in the New Territories (suburbs) with tall apartment buildings, car parks, grocery stores and the like. Besides realizing that the Chinese way of counting with the fingers is different, I found out nobody knows the 'rock-paper-scissor' game or the 'tumb-fight' or the '25 cent' drinking game (that's probably just a saddic Québec thing!), but they had the ''even-odd'' fingers clue game as well as a drinking game called Liars' Dice (which they also have in Pirats of the Carribean II so it's probably not from Hong Kong after all!) in which all players shake up deas secretly, and then everybody has to try to guess what digits showed up globally. Very interesting!

I can't really think of anything else, but this post may be updated from time to time as it unfolds...

I have just returned from my first trip to mainland China. It will for sure stay entrenched in my memories, although I still need to sink it in. The trip being only 5 days long, I have just explored the surface and spend most of my energy focusing on having fun and enjoying it, but I still came up with some questions...

I went there with Mark and Mita, whom I already referred to. My friend Vris from Hong Kong crossed the border from HK to Shenzhen with us and helped with the communications, and once again, picked all the right items on the menu for lunch! Oh I trust this girl on food! Going to China was a very spontaneous decision, as we received our double-entry visas on the Wednesday and left on the Thursday! The original plan was to go to the province of Yunnan, which is famous for its diversity of landscape and peoples, but since the train ride was a bit long, we opted for Guangxi instead (which is closer to Hong Kong; just 16h on the train one-way!). The province being promoted as a ''backpackers' paradise'' with ''typical'' Chinese sights, it looked good for a first trip.

The train ride was of the most fun! Even though lots of people in and outside of Hong Kong warn people about the train being dangerous (lots of thieves, incidents, it's slow, etc. etc.), we had the best time. We were in the hard sleepers cabin, which had 6 bunks (3 high!) and no door, but we spent most of our time in the restaurant wagon eating, drinking and smoking, and talking about love, revolution, globalisation, and trying to incarnate our ideal of being ''healthy, corrupt and sane''... I felt in a song by La Rue Kétanou (Et on se refait le monde sans que le monde ne s'en aperçoive!

We got to Guilin the morning after leaving Shenzhen. The moment we got down the train did we start getting singled out as tourists. Knew it would happen. Still trying to figure out how to approach being harassed for buying stuff and going places and stuff. I could relate my experience with that of Valérie in Thailand, where she had been sold random tour packages that didn't happen, and was ripped off by random people. I guess we were lucky not to end up in a random place :) After hesitating greatly facing these men that were offering us a ride to Yangshuo, we finally got there.

At that time did I start realize how the language barrier was affecting me. It is the first time that I can not communicate; Latin languages are easy to learn since I know French, but even after taking Mandarin for two months I could not pick up most of what was happening around me. I realized I didn't even know how to say ''toilets'' or ''how much is it''. Big shot in the ego. I guess that has to do with the clearly antiphatic feeling I had towards all the other White people I saw in the streets.

Speaking of White people, the trip to China was yet another event in the unfolding of my thinking on the issue of ''race'', which has kept on escalating since December (strangely coinciding with my trip to Chad and the starting of the Anti-Oppression Committee). It also exacerbated my anger at myself and my incredibly bad habit of being totally, utterly, continuously lost in my thoughts and my own little imaginary world. The reason I'm saying is that there were things going on live under my eyes that I could not notice. Mark and I were talking about how things like race and gender influence one's travel experience, but right in front of my eyes he was getting yelled at by a woman and laughted at by a waitress, without me noticing. I felt stupid. It makes me mad to be White and to have free privileges that I don't deserve more than anybody else. I hate being treated differently because I am seen as a walking cash machine.

There was another incident in the trip; on the second day, Mita got a thing in her eye which wouldn't go away. We decided to go to the hospital. Unforgettable, yet puzzling decision. It was so strange to enter this place; far from tourists' eyes, it was like a blast to remind us that we were in a Communist Country. Slow, inefficient public services are the reality, and a ''first come, first serves'' system prevails. Which meant a baby that was bleeding on the head was not seen as more of a priority than my friend... who had a small thing in her eye. I got so angry, and the fact that I could barely communicate with the doctor (which was smoking his cigarette alone in his second floor office with his uniform full of God knows what) really made me realize I need to learn more Chinese.

On the other hand, we did have lots of fun in China and enjoyed doing some touristy things(actually, ''travelling'' things --- ''the tourist sees what he has come to see, the traveller sees what he sees''). There were very pretty scenery, items and phenomena to observe (why do I always feel like a student of life lol?)- mountains, caves, rice paddies, lanterns, architecture, temples, etc. Swimming in the Li river was good, so was the bike ride, going to a bar with live music and experiencing the nightlife. Obviously the World Cup was still there. We did some shopping and some bargainning, got nice silk and cashmere stuff for my family and got a chinese stamp graved with my name on it (so egocentric lol). But overall I guess I will never be able to distinguish most of what was going on there.

It was good to stare at the window in the train, sketching in my book, see some new stuff, some recurring things. At the same time as I was thrilled about being in China and experiencing it fully, I feel strange about looking for comforting things such as records store when I'm in China. Lots of pirated DVDs there, even ones that were banned such as Memoirs of a Geisha. To your deception maybe, I did not get to try dog meat! I had a terrible back pain for the whole trip for some unknown reason, and I went for a massage with Mita in Shenzhen on the way back, and it made me feel like I was like anybody else going there. Which is bad; lots of guys in our program go to Shenzhen for massages... And cheap prostitutes. The downturn of the Yellow Fever I guess.

A couple other thoughts. When I was in China, I felt like I could sense its growth under my eyes. Just like Shenzhen used to be a small fishing village twenty years ago, I had the feeling like the economic boom was awaiting places like Yangshuo when we were sitting and having some beer fish at Minnie Mao's Restaurant (!!) and there was construction live right two meters from us. Hum... Then I must say I have been working a lot on tolerance and the sense of compromise necessary while travelling with other people. I must admit not knowing myself enough yet to assert what's my favorite way of travelling. Still figuring that out.

On the way back in the train, I woke up early as our cabin mates were having a loud conversation. Then I met this nice Chinese policeman in the restaurant wagon. It felt so strange when he was reading my IR stuff on Japan-China relations. It got me wondering about whether people here understand that China is the ''hot topic'' outside of it. I'm trying to imagine being in Québec and meeting a foreign student who came half-way across the world to study my place of birth. Hawkward.

In conclusion, this episode of the trip made me feel like another La Rue Kétanou song (Je ne sais pas ou je vais, mais ça je ne l'ai jamais bien su, mais si jamais je le savais, je crois bien que je n'irais plus!)